Better at being human?! Okay, I say that a bit tongue-in-cheek ... I think. After a trip to Japan, Jim Gaffigan said it well in one of his skits. It takes you less than a day in Tokyo to realize that the basic fiber of living is in many ways more elevated than what you are used to. Running a bit late, my friends and I ran right up to the door of a bus, and the driver sighed. Only then did we notice a marker some TEN feet away, behind which a group of people had already organized themselves into a line and were patiently excusing our ignorance. At the subway we noticed carriages for only women during designated "rush hours" for their greater comfort 😀. And yes, the toilets do make you feel like your country you thought was so developed all your life has actually been (and still is) in the stone age—we're not talking about 4K, AI or rocket science here — just t oilets! Why haven't we perfected the toilet yet? They didn't stop at the toilet, lol. Japan's techno...
Super Bowl bound quarterback for the Philadelphia Eagles has "IT" factor
Last night the Philadelphia Eagles defeated the Washington Commanders 55 to 23 to earn the right to head to the Super Bowl for the second time in three years. According to ESPN, the 55 points the Eagles put up are the largest amount any team has scored in a conference championship game in the history of the NFL as we know it today. Their quarterback, Jalen Hurts, completed 20 of his 28 passes for 246 yards, throwing for one touchdown and running for 3 more. His passer rating of 110.1 was nearly 40 points more than that of Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels. Many including Eagles MVP candidate running back Saquon Barkley believe that Jalen also had a little something extra that contributed to his success. In the days leading up to this game, Saquon told interviewers:
"I expect Jalen to be Jalen ... He's a winner. He's got that it factor."
What did he mean?
The "IT" factor
It's a little hard to define something so mysteriously scientific as an it factor, but maybe it has to do with Jalen seeming to play very well in high pressure situations. Consider the following graphic:
There is no higher pressure situation to the professional NFL player than the Super Bowl. Whereas other quarterbacks have understandably struggled on the highest stage, Jalen Hurts in the 2022 NFL Super Bowl went toe-to-toe with (and in some eyes even outplayed) Patrick Mahomes, who many consider to be the greatest talent at the quarterback position of all time.
Maybe Jalen's it factor has to do with his history of overcoming disappointing circumstances. In college, he was benched at halftime during the 2018 College Football Playoff Championship and watched his backup lead Alabama to the championship. Next season, the demotion became official as Jalen found himself as the primary backup all year until the quarterback who had replaced him got hurt during the SEC Championship game. Any hurt feelings aside, Jalen stepped in and led Alabama to another victory. The following season Jalen transferred to another school and led them to the Big 12 Championship, finishing second overall in the voting of the Heisman most valuable college football player award.
This so-called it factor could also have something to do with Jalen's oft-endearing responses in interviews when asked to praise himself. When asked to explain how he was able to overcome his difficult college experiences, for example, he replied:
"Nothing's been too surprising for me. Everything that's always unfolded has kind of been like okay well, here it is ... just the different experiences I've been able to experience. I give great credit to my parents—how they brought me up being a coach's kid ... I'm very appreciative ... I got to give great credit to my teammates."
The it factor is certainly solidified by the fact that Jalen seems to just find a way to win. With a 43 and 12 overall record since becoming the Eagles starting quarterback midway through the 2021 season, Eagles coach Nick Sirianni was not surprised that Hurts won again last night, becoming the first Eagles quarterback ever to earn multiple Super Bowl appearances.
During the trophy presentation after the game, the interviewer made no mention of Jalen Hurts when asking Coach Sirianni to comment on how the Eagles were able to come out on top. Sirianni essentially completely ignored the interviewer's direct point and commended Jalen Hurts to make his own point, stating:
"How about our quarterback? ... I knew he was going to play this way. Don't doubt him. All he does is win."
Don't doubt him?
Perhaps the most intriguing part of the Jalen Hurts story is how everyone seems to do just that.
Consider comments from the world's most popular NFL analysts regarding Jalen in the days leading up to the game last night against the Commanders:
—Is Jalen Hurts Underrated at this point?
—No, he's properly rated. He's not a great passer. He's very good at other things ...
—Two years ago when he led them to the Super Bowl there was talk about him being a top 5 quarterback. He was overrated. Now he's properly rated. What he is is a game manager who can certainly make big plays with his legs and often can make the big play with his arm. I know he's not an elite passer, but he can make the play here or there.
—I agree with you, Brew. It was a function of him being overrated; so now it feels like we are disparaging him.
—I would make Jalen Hurts beat us either with his legs or with his arm ...
—They're gonna force Jalen Hurts ... to throw the ball today to win this football game ... What he's put on tape even before the knee injury has been bad. Look, I played in the Wing-T in high school and threw for more yards than this ...
—Will Jalen Hurts throw them into the Super Bowl today?
—100 Percent no. If Saquon Barkley isn't having a day, they don't have a chance, and when I look at it, I see a quarterback who's absolutely on the struggle bus ... The best things he does, there's two things: number 1, he's a dang winner. The other thing is he's a quarterback with halfback skills, halfback skills as a runner. That's what he does. He's not a great passer ...
🤔
Much of the doubt this season seems to come from the fact that Saquon Barkley is having a historically great rushing season in his first season with the Eagles. Ignoring the fact that Jalen Hurts already led his team to the Superbowl without Saquon Barkley two years ago and Saquon has never gone to the Super Bowl without Jalen, these NFL analysts give Saquon all the credit for the Eagles' success this year, on other occasions even implying that the Eagles are winning in spite of Jalen rather than because of him.
Their favorite thing to say is that Jalen is a great running quarterback who can't actually pass that well.
Part of it could have to do with the fact that, in a league where most teams prioritize passing over rushing, Nick Sirianni this season has opted for a philosophy that prioritizes rushing over passing. Going against the grain, the Eagles have at times struggled to find a balance that doesn't leave their quarterback and receivers feeling neglected and/or out of rhythm. Last night during the most important game of the season, Sirianni found the right rhythm and called plenty of passing plays while still prioritizing the run. Jalen even said this of Sirianni after the game:
"He's done a great job. I guess he let me out of my straitjacket a little bit today."
Naysayers have assumed that Nick has chosen a primarily rushing philosophy because Jalen isn't a good enough passer. They can't possibly consider the innovative thought that a primarily rushing strategy, if at all reasonably possible considering the personnel, may innately be the best and least risky option to win in the physical game of football, where one turnover can mean more than all the passing stats in the world.
In fact, science may have already figured it out some years ago. Notice this excerpt from Joel Bock's Empirical Prediction of Turnovers in NFL Football, published in National Library of Medicine's PubMed Central:
"A positive differential turnover margin in a given game is a significant predictor correlated with winning that game [2]. One analysis of multi-season game outcomes found that teams having a single turnover less than their opponent were victorious 70% of the time [3] ... Less than 3% of passes are intercepted, and less than 1% of run plays end in fumbles being recovered by the defensive team."
Notice that according to one study it's 3 times more likely for a pass play to result in a turnover than a run play. Does this scientific evidence not at least suggest that if a team has the reasonable capability to run more and pass less, they should, and thus would, decrease their chance for turnovers and increase their chance for victory?
The Eagles' current strategy isn't about Jalen. It's about logic.
In no way does this mean that Jalen's passing ability has not been absolutely vital to the Eagles' success in the most important of situations, including a 31 yard 4th and 5 must-have-it dime to star receiver AJ Brown to turn the tide of the game.
On the topic of AJ, his situation must be briefly considered. At one point in the season, AJ said during an interview that the Eagles' passing attack needs to be better. Jalen Hurts' critics honed in on this, amplified it and used it to attack Jalen's ability as a quarterback. During another game, AJ was seen on the sideline actually reading a book, seemingly in an attempt to calm himself because he wasn't happy he wasn't getting the ball as much as he would have liked. As with many star receivers throughout the history of the NFL, AJ has never been known as a team-first player. What's more is that Philadelphia fans who have actually been watching the games these past years have seen that AJ has simply played worse this year. Consider this crucial dropped dime Hurts threw in the divisional playoff game last week against the Rams (alongside the joking commentary which references AJ's above-mentioned book-reading exploits):
Whether it be for age, attitude, injury or all of the above, AJ has NOT been the superstar receiver we previously had been accustomed to see, and Jalen Hurts is NOT one of the reasons. Both Jalen's individual success as a passer this season and his ability to adapt and lead to the ultimate benefit of the overall team should be all the more appreciated in the light of AJ Brown's situation this year.
Jalen's individual success as a passer?
Did you read that right?
Yes!
If you didn't actually watch the games and only listened to talk shows, you might actually believe that Jalen has not been an elite passer this year. Thankfully we have a combination of eyes and data to save us.
Jalen Hurts was TOP FIVE in passer rating during this 2024 regular season and top 10 in ESPN-specific total QBR (quarterback rating). What's interesting about this is the passer rating takes into account, as the name implies, only passing, whereas QBR takes into account a quarterback's rushing output, among other things. Hence, 4 of the top 5 quarterbacks in QBR on the list are known for their running ability compared to only 2 of the top 5 on the passer rating list.
Bottom line: Jalen Hurts has had a higher passing rating this year than Patrick Mahomes, the best quarterback in football. Pundits make excuses for Mahomes and ultimately say that, whatever the case, he wins and raises his level of play when it really matters, as evidenced by the fact that he will be playing again in the Super Bowl in two weeks.
The exact same thing can be said of only one other quarterback: Jalen Hurts.
The pundits might reply, "well if you switched the two rosters, Hurts on the Chiefs and Mahomes on the Eagles, the Eagles would still be here and the Chiefs not."
If so, they would be ignoring the fact that while Jalen does have more offensive weapons this season around him, both the Chiefs and the Eagles have great defenses, AJ Brown has not been a superstar this year, and the Chiefs have perhaps the best coach in the NFL in Andy Reid and one of the greatest defensive coordinators of all time in Steve Spagnuolo.
And, most importantly, Jalen would still have that it factor.
Shortly before yesterday's game, when the haters were still chirping, Jalen was pressed to explain what he thinks the mysteriously scientific it factor is that Saquon Barkley and others have said Jalen has. Jalen responded with a grin (from the 4:51 mark of the video):
"I don't know what it is. It keeps people talking. It must be something good."
Great article! EAGLES!!!
ReplyDelete